Apr 10, 2022
In General Discussions
Below is the actual effectiveness of all 54 tested interventions in Whatsapp Number List blue. In orange in the graph are the predictions of scientists and practical experts, among others. Test results. If you find scientific articles too elaborate: in the video below Katy Milkman explains the idea behind mega studies and also discusses the results of the Whatsapp Number List gym experiment. Experts don't always know either. The researchers had experts (such as scientists and practitioners) and laymen predict beforehand which interventions would work best and how strong. Conclusions of that prediction experiment: The Whatsapp Number List predicted effects are much larger than in reality (the orange bars are much more to the right than the blue bars). The forecasts were on average 9.1 times too optimistic Whatsapp Number List There seems to be little or no correlation between predicted effectiveness and actual effectiveness. The graph is sorted by actual effectiveness (blue bars) but no pattern is visible in the orange bars. Remarkably, the laymen (participants of the online panel Prolific) predicted the results even better than the experts. Group scored better than pure chance. Applications Whatsapp Number List can you apply this in practice? It gives you support to deviate from what the Hippo (Highest Paid Person's Opinion) thinks: no one has a monopoly on the truth. And the results once again underline the importance of context, which means that you often have to empirically test promising interventions yourself in the environment that is important to you. Some interventions and techniques Whatsapp Number List a greater chance of success, but nothing is certain and context and implementation determine the actual effect.